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Frozen pre-match forecast · #138

Tritium VS Villa Valle

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
16 Sep 2026 · 01:00 UTC
Match kickoff
16 Sep 2026 · 18:00 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
26.82%
Draw
37.07%
Away
36.11%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

1 – 190-minute result
Brier score
0.5983
Log loss
0.9924

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
legacy
Captured at
16 Sep 2026 · 01:00 UTC
SHA-256
33853c80eb9d1511af33878b6a38300bb216b8d508ed879bc2fc1b57dea56d92

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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