Frozen pre-match forecast · #129453
Ards VS Institute
The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.
- Published before kickoff
- 10 Oct 2026 · 05:12 UTC
- Match kickoff
- 16 Oct 2026 · 18:45 UTC
- Record status
- Graded
Before kickoff
Published probabilities
- Home
- 35.59%
- Draw
- 25.74%
- Away
- 38.67%
These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
View every retained version of this fixture →After the final whistle
Result & grading
- Brier score
- 0.5691
- Log loss
- 0.9501
Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.
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About this record and its grading
- Model version
- v5
- Captured at
- 10 Oct 2026 · 05:12 UTC
- SHA-256
- 649f463c2344aefb4aa0d1ce7cfc47894fc5f85a7a92a8e5b6b9d4df522daadd
The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.
Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.