Frozen pre-match forecast · #128590
Atlético Madrid II VS Zaragoza
The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.
- Published before kickoff
- 10 Oct 2026 · 05:09 UTC
- Match kickoff
- 11 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC
- Record status
- Graded
Before kickoff
Published probabilities
- Home
- 35.63%
- Draw
- 25.66%
- Away
- 38.70%
These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
View every retained version of this fixture →After the final whistle
Result & grading
- Brier score
- 0.8294
- Log loss
- 1.3601
Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.
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About this record and its grading
- Model version
- v5
- Captured at
- 10 Oct 2026 · 05:09 UTC
- SHA-256
- 14c5908ea92c401275fd96eef2ec7a976a675bad59b1265334094db9e2cad9ee
The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.
Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.