Frozen pre-match forecast · #128481
Durango VS Derio
The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.
- Published before kickoff
- 10 Oct 2026 · 05:09 UTC
- Match kickoff
- 10 Oct 2026 · 10:00 UTC
- Record status
- Graded
Before kickoff
Published probabilities
- Home
- 36.51%
- Draw
- 27.85%
- Away
- 35.64%
These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
View every retained version of this fixture →After the final whistle
Result & grading
- Brier score
- 0.7809
- Log loss
- 1.2783
Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.
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About this record and its grading
- Model version
- v5
- Captured at
- 10 Oct 2026 · 05:09 UTC
- SHA-256
- 065fe5b0d40b73326a37d49fbe78bfa2791b080b70a0dd44f50af83be0ec3959
The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.
Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.