Frozen pre-match forecast · #127434
jerv VS Arendal
The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.
- Published before kickoff
- 10 Oct 2026 · 05:06 UTC
- Match kickoff
- 10 Oct 2026 · 17:00 UTC
- Record status
- Graded
Before kickoff
Published probabilities
- Home
- 70.43%
- Draw
- 17.28%
- Away
- 12.29%
These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
View every retained version of this fixture →After the final whistle
Result & grading
- Brier score
- 1.1954
- Log loss
- 1.7556
Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.
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About this record and its grading
- Model version
- v5
- Captured at
- 10 Oct 2026 · 05:06 UTC
- SHA-256
- 35aefe12fc599428c7b133f28a22cf12b9c7c1b423120490f3a2ef5263747a6d
The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.
Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.