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Frozen pre-match forecast · #126578

CSF Bălți VS Sireți

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
10 Oct 2026 · 05:03 UTC
Match kickoff
10 Oct 2026 · 12:00 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
25.35%
Draw
24.74%
Away
49.91%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

0 – 390-minute result
Brier score
0.3764
Log loss
0.6949

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
v5
Captured at
10 Oct 2026 · 05:03 UTC
SHA-256
58729389e82d03a942548cf4d1e3a43aebb8572b8f94d1bbe175955d02d46fa4

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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