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Frozen pre-match forecast · #122079

Sotra VS Kvik Halden

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
09 Oct 2026 · 05:06 UTC
Match kickoff
10 Oct 2026 · 12:00 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
69.20%
Draw
17.86%
Away
12.94%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

3 – 090-minute result
Brier score
0.1435
Log loss
0.3682

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
v5
Captured at
09 Oct 2026 · 05:06 UTC
SHA-256
1257989acba16b9e64bead48f20bdb29a77034d0d5d6c2a2e7658f239c26f277

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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