Frozen pre-match forecast · #120743
Penarol VS Progreso
The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.
- Published before kickoff
- 08 Oct 2026 · 05:11 UTC
- Match kickoff
- 10 Oct 2026 · 21:30 UTC
- Record status
- Graded
Before kickoff
Published probabilities
- Home
- 68.50%
- Draw
- 20.13%
- Away
- 11.37%
These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
View every retained version of this fixture →After the final whistle
Result & grading
- Brier score
- 1.1201
- Log loss
- 1.6030
Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.
Get the full match analysis
Explore additional markets, team probability history and opponent-adjusted form. Historical coverage varies by match.
About this record and its grading
- Model version
- v5
- Captured at
- 08 Oct 2026 · 05:11 UTC
- SHA-256
- 9b573ff7227fb9ab9838c0839d515473ed84d76ae2ef5466b609087b8f7c5e9b
The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.
Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.