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Frozen pre-match forecast · #118582

Dietikon VS Mendrisio

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
08 Oct 2026 · 05:06 UTC
Match kickoff
10 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
47.93%
Draw
24.47%
Away
27.60%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

2 – 090-minute result
Brier score
0.4072
Log loss
0.7354

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
v5
Captured at
08 Oct 2026 · 05:06 UTC
SHA-256
05938a1e992baa23dcd0fe088bfc0a826a1cd4662d768b610ab0e95f0b7f2470

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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