Frozen pre-match forecast · #116002
Rayo Majadahonda VS Real Murcia
The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.
- Published before kickoff
- 07 Oct 2026 · 05:11 UTC
- Match kickoff
- 11 Oct 2026 · 16:45 UTC
- Record status
- Graded
Before kickoff
Published probabilities
- Home
- 39.68%
- Draw
- 28.95%
- Away
- 31.36%
These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
View every retained version of this fixture →After the final whistle
Result & grading
- Brier score
- 0.7124
- Log loss
- 1.1595
Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.
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About this record and its grading
- Model version
- v5
- Captured at
- 07 Oct 2026 · 05:11 UTC
- SHA-256
- 05cd8158c33840971181a1ef0b62c13b9f91ddec5e085d7c00ad0d0535e06130
The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.
Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.