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Frozen pre-match forecast · #111745

IK brage VS Helsingborg

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
06 Oct 2026 · 05:09 UTC
Match kickoff
11 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
40.01%
Draw
25.14%
Away
34.85%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

2 – 090-minute result
Brier score
0.5445
Log loss
0.9160

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
v5
Captured at
06 Oct 2026 · 05:09 UTC
SHA-256
1ce3d8bd5be51e21d458d74a052dc84253fb08a38812da22a4d71ea8c387ceb1

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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