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Frozen pre-match forecast · #110348

Lund VS Trollhättan

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
06 Oct 2026 · 05:06 UTC
Match kickoff
10 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
44.60%
Draw
23.76%
Away
31.63%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

4 – 390-minute result
Brier score
0.4634
Log loss
0.8073

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
v5
Captured at
06 Oct 2026 · 05:06 UTC
SHA-256
320e558c3db939199541eafffb0c7ac2ef693761a004695ad2ea72d88750f11a

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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