Frozen pre-match forecast · #107872
Arosa VS Bergantiños
The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.
- Published before kickoff
- 05 Oct 2026 · 05:13 UTC
- Match kickoff
- 11 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UTC
- Record status
- Graded
Before kickoff
Published probabilities
- Home
- 26.36%
- Draw
- 24.14%
- Away
- 49.50%
These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
View every retained version of this fixture →After the final whistle
Result & grading
- Brier score
- 0.8900
- Log loss
- 1.4213
Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.
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About this record and its grading
- Model version
- v5
- Captured at
- 05 Oct 2026 · 05:13 UTC
- SHA-256
- 4ffc727d08179dc0165c7e8f99e9a97c0c7e0b7ce4e0bf3c3ff1b403c7261530
The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.
Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.