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Frozen pre-match forecast · #106194

Halkanoras VS Doxa

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
05 Oct 2026 · 05:07 UTC
Match kickoff
10 Oct 2026 · 12:30 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
45.45%
Draw
26.42%
Away
28.14%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

3 – 490-minute result
Brier score
0.7927
Log loss
1.2681

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
v5
Captured at
05 Oct 2026 · 05:07 UTC
SHA-256
0a2e9995354161bf0fb6ef5ff61c5a30bba4d4c68e7e9ece6ada27d8a563c9f3

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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