Frozen pre-match forecast · #100537
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod VS Krylya Sovetov II
The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.
- Published before kickoff
- 04 Oct 2026 · 05:01 UTC
- Match kickoff
- 04 Oct 2026 · 11:00 UTC
- Record status
- Graded
Before kickoff
Published probabilities
- Home
- 49.57%
- Draw
- 25.46%
- Away
- 24.97%
These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
View every retained version of this fixture →After the final whistle
Result & grading
- Brier score
- 0.8735
- Log loss
- 1.3875
Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.
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About this record and its grading
- Model version
- v5
- Captured at
- 04 Oct 2026 · 05:01 UTC
- SHA-256
- 0f40efab5721b414ad8f7573f59500067ec074a1000e62d1d91e4275be2469ce
The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.
Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.