Frozen pre-match forecast · #100460
Salcedo VS Moca
The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.
- Published before kickoff
- 04 Oct 2026 · 05:01 UTC
- Match kickoff
- 04 Oct 2026 · 20:00 UTC
- Record status
- Graded
Before kickoff
Published probabilities
- Home
- 61.55%
- Draw
- 23.91%
- Away
- 14.54%
These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
View every retained version of this fixture →After the final whistle
Result & grading
- Brier score
- 0.2262
- Log loss
- 0.4853
Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.
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About this record and its grading
- Model version
- v5
- Captured at
- 04 Oct 2026 · 05:01 UTC
- SHA-256
- dfe332cc043afcfc84e08a1c99afa6ebb3ad44fc096047d5e3ea8c4965b3a101
The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.
Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.