Predicted Outcome
Prediction
Model probabilities are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
Outcome probability
- Home
- 36.25%
- Draw
- 18.86%
- Away
- 44.90%
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Head to Head
Levante VS Osasuna - Match Preview
Tactical Disparity at the Ciudad de Valencia
As Levante prepare to host Osasuna at the Estadio Ciudad de Valencia on May 8, 2026, the stakes for the home side could not be higher. Sitting in 19th place in La Liga, Levante are fighting for their top-flight survival, while Osasuna occupy a relatively secure 10th position. Levante manager Luis Castro faces the daunting challenge of turning around a side that has struggled for consistency, particularly in their home form, managing only 5 wins from 17 matches at this venue. In contrast, Osasuna, under the guidance of manager A. Lisci, arrive with a psychological advantage derived from a historical dominance in this fixture.
Historical Patterns and Midfield Dynamics
Head-to-head records are often dismissed by some, but the data in this pairing reveals a clear trend. Over 10 meetings, Osasuna have secured 5 victories compared to just 2 for Levante. Furthermore, Osasuna have outscored their opponents 12 to 6, indicating they consistently find ways to neutralize the Levante attack while remaining clinical in the final third. Tactical control of the midfield will be pivotal. While Levante have historically commanded more possession—averaging 56.4% compared to 43.6% for Osasuna—they have failed to convert that dominance into meaningful results. A key player to watch for Levante is Carlos Álvarez, whose contribution of 3 goals and 1 assist provides a necessary creative spark, but he will need support from a defense that has conceded too many goals in the final quarter of matches.
The Final Third Battle
The closing stages of this match could be decisive. Osasuna possess a dangerous late-game threat, scoring 18 of their goals in the 76-90 minute window. With A. Budimir leading their line with 12 goals this season, Osasuna have a proven target man capable of capitalising on the high-pressure moments that define these relegation-threatened fixtures. Levante's defense, prone to conceding 16 goals in that same late interval, must maintain absolute focus if they are to avoid dropping vital points. Conversely, Levante find success in that same late window, having scored 13 goals there themselves, suggesting a high probability of action in the final minutes as desperation sets in.
Verdict
Osasuna enter this encounter as the more stable outfit with a clear mental edge built on their superior head-to-head record and the presence of a prolific goalscorer in A. Budimir. While Levante possess a home advantage and a strong desire to pull themselves out of the relegation zone, their inability to consistently close out matches remains a glaring weakness. Expect a tightly contested affair where the visitors' efficiency proves the difference, resulting in an away victory.
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Match probability
Home
Draw
Away
Expected goals (xG)
Home
Away
Shot locations
Team form (last 5)