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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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479graded matches
0.5846Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9825Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 21 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.4%11.4%79
10–20%16.0%13.9%201
20–30%24.9%25.4%523
30–40%34.1%35.7%207
40–50%44.8%44.9%176
50–60%54.4%53.2%109
60–70%64.6%63.1%65
70–80%75.0%73.5%49
80–90%83.5%61.1%18
90–100%93.2%100.0%10

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (479)

Updated 23 Oct 2026 · 12:20 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · World
    Czech Republic U21 Bulgaria U21
    Home65.37% Draw22.18% Away12.45%
    1–0 Correct pick
  2. Published UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · World
    Czech Republic U21 Bulgaria U21
    Home65.68% Draw20.68% Away13.64%
    1–0 Correct pick
  3. Published UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · World
    Czech Republic U21 Bulgaria U21
    Home53.27% Draw26.48% Away20.25%
    1–0 Correct pick
  4. Published UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · World
    Czech Republic U21 Bulgaria U21
    Home53.27% Draw26.48% Away20.25%
    1–0 Correct pick
  5. Published UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · World
    Czech Republic U21 Bulgaria U21
    Home53.27% Draw26.47% Away20.25%
    1–0 Correct pick
  6. Published UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · World
    Czech Republic U21 Bulgaria U21
    Home53.31% Draw26.44% Away20.25%
    1–0 Correct pick
  7. Published UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · World
    Czech Republic U21 Bulgaria U21
    Home62.44% Draw23.48% Away14.08%
    1–0 Correct pick
  8. Published UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · World
    Czech Republic U21 Bulgaria U21
    Home62.45% Draw23.47% Away14.08%
    1–0 Correct pick
  9. Published UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · World
    Czech Republic U21 Bulgaria U21
    Home62.44% Draw23.48% Away14.08%
    1–0 Correct pick
  10. Published UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · World
    Czech Republic U21 Bulgaria U21
    Home62.44% Draw23.48% Away14.08%
    1–0 Correct pick
  11. Published UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · World
    Czech Republic U21 Bulgaria U21
    Home61.99% Draw23.59% Away14.42%
    1–0 Correct pick
  12. Published UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · World
    Czech Republic U21 Bulgaria U21
    Home61.99% Draw23.59% Away14.42%
    1–0 Correct pick
  13. Published UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · World
    Czech Republic U21 Bulgaria U21
    Home54.74% Draw30.49% Away14.77%
    1–0 Correct pick
  14. Published UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · World
    Czech Republic U21 Bulgaria U21
    Home54.74% Draw30.49% Away14.77%
    1–0 Correct pick
  15. Published UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · World
    Czech Republic U21 Bulgaria U21
    Home54.74% Draw30.49% Away14.77%
    1–0 Correct pick
  16. Published UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · World
    Czech Republic U21 Bulgaria U21
    Home43.65% Draw28.86% Away27.49%
    1–0 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.