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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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494graded matches
0.5500Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9312Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 6 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.1%7.2%69
10–20%15.7%14.3%252
20–30%24.8%22.4%522
30–40%34.9%34.8%201
40–50%45.0%50.9%171
50–60%54.7%57.5%106
60–70%64.4%66.3%80
70–80%74.8%80.8%52
80–90%84.4%73.9%23
90–100%94.0%100.0%6

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (494)

Updated 15 Nov 2026 · 04:10 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Canadian Premier League · Canada
    Atlético Ottawa Forge
    Home26.80% Draw24.57% Away48.63%
    2–2 Missed
  2. Published Canadian Premier League · Canada
    Atlético Ottawa Forge
    Home25.39% Draw24.26% Away50.35%
    2–2 Missed
  3. Published Canadian Premier League · Canada
    Atlético Ottawa Forge
    Home25.56% Draw23.66% Away50.78%
    2–2 Missed
  4. Published Canadian Premier League · Canada
    Atlético Ottawa Forge
    Home25.56% Draw23.66% Away50.78%
    2–2 Missed
  5. Published Canadian Premier League · Canada
    Atlético Ottawa Forge
    Home25.56% Draw23.66% Away50.78%
    2–2 Missed
  6. Published Canadian Premier League · Canada
    Atlético Ottawa Forge
    Home25.56% Draw23.66% Away50.78%
    2–2 Missed
  7. Published Canadian Premier League · Canada
    Atlético Ottawa Forge
    Home25.56% Draw23.66% Away50.78%
    2–2 Missed
  8. Published Canadian Premier League · Canada
    Atlético Ottawa Forge
    Home25.56% Draw23.66% Away50.78%
    2–2 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.