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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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494graded matches
0.5522Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9343Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 6 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.1%7.2%69
10–20%15.8%14.6%253
20–30%24.8%22.5%520
30–40%34.9%35.1%202
40–50%45.0%50.6%172
50–60%54.8%56.7%104
60–70%64.3%65.4%81
70–80%74.8%80.8%52
80–90%84.4%73.9%23
90–100%94.0%100.0%6

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (494)

Updated 15 Nov 2026 · 02:30 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Botola Pro · Morocco
    Renaissance Berkane Raja Casablanca
    Home45.80% Draw30.23% Away23.97%
    2–0 Correct pick
  2. Published Botola Pro · Morocco
    Renaissance Berkane Raja Casablanca
    Home45.82% Draw30.00% Away24.18%
    2–0 Correct pick
  3. Published Botola Pro · Morocco
    Renaissance Berkane Raja Casablanca
    Home41.71% Draw30.30% Away27.99%
    2–0 Correct pick
  4. Published Botola Pro · Morocco
    Renaissance Berkane Raja Casablanca
    Home36.39% Draw30.57% Away33.04%
    2–0 Correct pick
  5. Published Botola Pro · Morocco
    Renaissance Berkane Raja Casablanca
    Home35.70% Draw30.51% Away33.79%
    2–0 Correct pick
  6. Published Botola Pro · Morocco
    Renaissance Berkane Raja Casablanca
    Home35.70% Draw30.51% Away33.79%
    2–0 Correct pick
  7. Published Botola Pro · Morocco
    Renaissance Berkane Raja Casablanca
    Home35.70% Draw30.51% Away33.79%
    2–0 Correct pick
  8. Published Botola Pro · Morocco
    Renaissance Berkane Raja Casablanca
    Home38.25% Draw29.97% Away31.78%
    2–0 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.