The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

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Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

493graded matches

0.5582Multiclass Brier (0–2)

0.9420Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 7 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table

Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability band	Mean predicted	Observed frequency	Outcome observations
0–10%	6.1%	4.8%	63
10–20%	15.7%	14.5%	241
20–30%	24.8%	24.1%	531
30–40%	34.8%	34.0%	209
40–50%	45.0%	48.0%	173
50–60%	54.7%	55.0%	109
60–70%	64.3%	67.5%	80
70–80%	75.1%	80.0%	45
80–90%	84.3%	78.3%	23
90–100%	94.8%	100.0%	5

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (493)

Updated 13 Nov 2026 · 15:50 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

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Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.

Versions for this fixture

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