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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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494graded matches
0.5505Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9318Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 6 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.1%7.2%69
10–20%15.7%14.3%252
20–30%24.8%22.6%523
30–40%34.9%34.5%200
40–50%45.0%51.2%170
50–60%54.7%57.0%107
60–70%64.4%66.3%80
70–80%74.8%80.8%52
80–90%84.4%73.9%23
90–100%94.0%100.0%6

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (494)

Updated 15 Nov 2026 · 04:40 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Liga de Expansión MX · Mexico
    Leones Negros UDG Tepatitlán
    Home77.99% Draw13.49% Away8.51%
    3–1 Correct pick
  2. Published Liga de Expansión MX · Mexico
    Leones Negros UDG Tepatitlán
    Home76.85% Draw14.08% Away9.07%
    3–1 Correct pick
  3. Published Liga de Expansión MX · Mexico
    Leones Negros UDG Tepatitlán
    Home74.29% Draw15.22% Away10.48%
    3–1 Correct pick
  4. Published Liga de Expansión MX · Mexico
    Leones Negros UDG Tepatitlán
    Home73.14% Draw16.01% Away10.85%
    3–1 Correct pick
  5. Published Liga de Expansión MX · Mexico
    Leones Negros UDG Tepatitlán
    Home73.14% Draw16.01% Away10.85%
    3–1 Correct pick
  6. Published Liga de Expansión MX · Mexico
    Leones Negros UDG Tepatitlán
    Home81.24% Draw12.68% Away6.08%
    3–1 Correct pick
  7. Published Liga de Expansión MX · Mexico
    Leones Negros UDG Tepatitlán
    Home81.23% Draw12.68% Away6.08%
    3–1 Correct pick
  8. Published Liga de Expansión MX · Mexico
    Leones Negros UDG Tepatitlán
    Home79.90% Draw13.25% Away6.85%
    3–1 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.