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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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Model
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494graded matches
0.5506Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9321Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 6 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.1%7.2%69
10–20%15.8%14.3%251
20–30%24.8%22.6%523
30–40%34.9%35.0%200
40–50%45.0%50.3%171
50–60%54.7%57.0%107
60–70%64.3%65.4%81
70–80%74.8%82.4%51
80–90%84.4%73.9%23
90–100%94.0%100.0%6

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (494)

Updated 15 Nov 2026 · 07:01 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Serie A · Italy
    Lecce Genoa
    Home29.88% Draw29.02% Away41.10%
    1–2 Correct pick
  2. Published Serie A · Italy
    Lecce Genoa
    Home30.14% Draw29.04% Away40.83%
    1–2 Correct pick
  3. Published Serie A · Italy
    Lecce Genoa
    Home32.32% Draw29.25% Away38.43%
    1–2 Correct pick
  4. Published Serie A · Italy
    Lecce Genoa
    Home35.56% Draw29.20% Away35.24%
    1–2 Missed
  5. Published Serie A · Italy
    Lecce Genoa
    Home35.56% Draw29.20% Away35.24%
    1–2 Missed
  6. Published Serie A · Italy
    Lecce Genoa
    Home34.68% Draw29.21% Away36.11%
    1–2 Correct pick
  7. Published Serie A · Italy
    Lecce Genoa
    Home37.10% Draw28.38% Away34.53%
    1–2 Missed
  8. Published Serie A · Italy
    Lecce Genoa
    Home35.90% Draw28.21% Away35.88%
    1–2 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.