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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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Model
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486graded matches
0.5544Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9404Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 14 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.9%3.4%29
10–20%16.3%10.3%155
20–30%24.9%21.6%603
30–40%34.8%32.8%271
40–50%44.9%53.4%176
50–60%54.4%60.0%130
60–70%64.4%80.0%65
70–80%75.6%95.0%20
80–90%82.6%71.4%7
90–100%95.2%100.0%2

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (486)

Updated 03 Nov 2026 · 11:30 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published League One · Scotland
    Peterhead Alloa Athletic
    Home43.35% Draw25.73% Away30.92%
    2–1 Correct pick
  2. Published League One · Scotland
    Peterhead Alloa Athletic
    Home39.90% Draw26.03% Away34.08%
    2–1 Correct pick
  3. Published League One · Scotland
    Peterhead Alloa Athletic
    Home40.00% Draw26.03% Away33.98%
    2–1 Correct pick
  4. Published League One · Scotland
    Peterhead Alloa Athletic
    Home40.00% Draw26.03% Away33.98%
    2–1 Correct pick
  5. Published League One · Scotland
    Peterhead Alloa Athletic
    Home33.65% Draw28.32% Away38.04%
    2–1 Missed
  6. Published League One · Scotland
    Peterhead Alloa Athletic
    Home33.65% Draw28.32% Away38.04%
    2–1 Missed
  7. Published League One · Scotland
    Peterhead Alloa Athletic
    Home33.64% Draw28.32% Away38.03%
    2–1 Missed
  8. Published League One · Scotland
    Peterhead Alloa Athletic
    Home35.95% Draw28.30% Away35.75%
    2–1 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.