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Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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487graded matches
0.5531Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9368Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 13 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.7%0.0%28
10–20%16.3%10.8%158
20–30%25.0%21.6%610
30–40%34.7%32.8%259
40–50%44.9%54.1%183
50–60%54.4%59.8%127
60–70%64.4%76.1%67
70–80%75.5%95.0%20
80–90%82.6%85.7%7
90–100%95.2%100.0%2

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (487)

Updated 03 Nov 2026 · 05:40 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Premiership · Northern Ireland
    Coleraine FC Glentoran
    Home56.14% Draw23.20% Away20.66%
    1–1 Missed
  2. Published Premiership · Northern Ireland
    Coleraine FC Glentoran
    Home56.07% Draw23.23% Away20.71%
    1–1 Missed
  3. Published Premiership · Northern Ireland
    Coleraine FC Glentoran
    Home56.22% Draw23.19% Away20.59%
    1–1 Missed
  4. Published Premiership · Northern Ireland
    Coleraine FC Glentoran
    Home52.51% Draw24.14% Away23.35%
    1–1 Missed
  5. Published Premiership · Northern Ireland
    Coleraine FC Glentoran
    Home58.57% Draw21.87% Away19.57%
    1–1 Missed
  6. Published Premiership · Northern Ireland
    Coleraine FC Glentoran
    Home58.56% Draw21.87% Away19.57%
    1–1 Missed
  7. Published Premiership · Northern Ireland
    Coleraine FC Glentoran
    Home54.35% Draw23.04% Away22.60%
    1–1 Missed
  8. Published Premiership · Northern Ireland
    Coleraine FC Glentoran
    Home50.15% Draw24.97% Away24.88%
    1–1 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.