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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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492graded matches
0.5543Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9376Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 8 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.9%8.7%92
10–20%15.8%13.2%257
20–30%24.6%25.4%496
30–40%34.8%33.9%192
40–50%44.7%46.1%152
50–60%54.7%52.9%104
60–70%64.4%65.6%90
70–80%74.2%77.4%53
80–90%85.5%79.3%29
90–100%94.3%100.0%11

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (492)

Updated 29 Oct 2026 · 07:01 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Pro League · Saudi Arabia
    Al Shabab Al-Ahli Jeddah
    Home29.64% Draw23.60% Away46.76%
    Awaiting result
  2. Published Pro League · Saudi Arabia
    Al Shabab Al-Ahli Jeddah
    Home29.61% Draw23.68% Away46.71%
    Awaiting result
  3. Published Pro League · Saudi Arabia
    Al Shabab Al-Ahli Jeddah
    Home26.96% Draw23.34% Away49.70%
    Awaiting result
  4. Published Pro League · Saudi Arabia
    Al Shabab Al-Ahli Jeddah
    Home26.96% Draw23.34% Away49.70%
    Awaiting result
  5. Published Pro League · Saudi Arabia
    Al Shabab Al-Ahli Jeddah
    Home26.96% Draw23.34% Away49.70%
    Awaiting result
  6. Published Pro League · Saudi Arabia
    Al Shabab Al-Ahli Jeddah
    Home18.50% Draw21.10% Away60.39%
    Awaiting result
  7. Published Pro League · Saudi Arabia
    Al Shabab Al-Ahli Jeddah
    Home19.91% Draw22.34% Away57.75%
    Awaiting result

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.