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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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482graded matches
0.6099Multiclass Brier (0–2)
1.0125Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 18 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.0%0.0%30
10–20%16.1%18.8%160
20–30%25.1%26.6%606
30–40%34.7%32.6%236
40–50%44.8%46.8%205
50–60%54.7%48.7%115
60–70%64.7%57.1%56
70–80%74.0%70.4%27
80–90%84.8%100.0%7
90–100%93.7%100.0%4

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (482)

Updated 25 Oct 2026 · 11:40 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published J-League Cup · Japan
    Yokohama F. Marinos Sanfrecce Hiroshima
    Home22.18% Draw23.37% Away54.44%
    Awaiting result
  2. Published J-League Cup · Japan
    Yokohama F. Marinos Sanfrecce Hiroshima
    Home22.86% Draw23.58% Away53.57%
    Awaiting result
  3. Published J-League Cup · Japan
    Yokohama F. Marinos Sanfrecce Hiroshima
    Home22.86% Draw23.58% Away53.56%
    Awaiting result
  4. Published J-League Cup · Japan
    Yokohama F. Marinos Sanfrecce Hiroshima
    Home22.86% Draw23.58% Away53.56%
    Awaiting result
  5. Published J-League Cup · Japan
    Yokohama F. Marinos Sanfrecce Hiroshima
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.