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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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492graded matches
0.5554Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9421Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 8 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.7%6.1%49
10–20%15.9%12.7%212
20–30%24.8%23.5%548
30–40%34.8%32.2%245
40–50%44.7%49.2%181
50–60%54.6%56.1%107
60–70%64.3%75.0%80
70–80%74.8%82.9%35
80–90%84.1%80.0%15
90–100%95.4%100.0%4

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (492)

Updated 05 Nov 2026 · 21:40 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published LFA First Division · Liberia
    Discoveries Freeport
    Home50.78% Draw25.14% Away24.07%
    1–2 Missed
  2. Published LFA First Division · Liberia
    Discoveries Freeport
    Home50.78% Draw25.14% Away24.07%
    1–2 Missed
  3. Published LFA First Division · Liberia
    Discoveries Freeport
    Home50.79% Draw25.14% Away24.07%
    1–2 Missed
  4. Published LFA First Division · Liberia
    Discoveries Freeport
    Home52.17% Draw24.65% Away23.19%
    1–2 Missed
  5. Published LFA First Division · Liberia
    Discoveries Freeport
    Home51.92% Draw24.76% Away23.32%
    1–2 Missed
  6. Published LFA First Division · Liberia
    Discoveries Freeport
    Home51.92% Draw24.76% Away23.32%
    1–2 Missed
  7. Published LFA First Division · Liberia
    Discoveries Freeport
    Home51.92% Draw24.76% Away23.32%
    1–2 Missed
  8. Published LFA First Division · Liberia
    Discoveries Freeport
    Home56.79% Draw23.08% Away20.13%
    1–2 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.