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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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496graded matches
0.5646Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9523Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 4 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.7%5.9%34
10–20%16.2%10.3%165
20–30%25.2%24.3%634
30–40%34.7%29.4%228
40–50%44.8%50.5%200
50–60%54.5%61.2%129
60–70%64.5%72.3%65
70–80%75.0%94.4%18
80–90%84.3%80.0%10
90–100%94.0%80.0%5

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (496)

Updated 02 Nov 2026 · 03:50 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Cup · Austria
    Lask Linz Ried
    Home62.02% Draw20.66% Away17.32%
    3–3 Missed
  2. Published Cup · Austria
    Lask Linz Ried
    Home62.02% Draw20.66% Away17.32%
    3–3 Missed
  3. Published Cup · Austria
    Lask Linz Ried
    Home42.03% Draw21.67% Away36.30%
    3–3 Missed
  4. Published Cup · Austria
    Lask Linz Ried
    Home41.90% Draw21.67% Away36.43%
    3–3 Missed
  5. Published Cup · Austria
    Lask Linz Ried
    Home44.60% Draw21.55% Away33.85%
    3–3 Missed
  6. Published Cup · Austria
    Lask Linz Ried
    Home44.60% Draw21.55% Away33.85%
    3–3 Missed
  7. Published Cup · Austria
    Lask Linz Ried
    Home44.60% Draw21.55% Away33.85%
    3–3 Missed
  8. Published Cup · Austria
    Lask Linz Ried
    Home44.60% Draw21.55% Away33.85%
    3–3 Missed
  9. Published Cup · Austria
    Lask Linz Ried
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.