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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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497graded matches
0.5978Multiclass Brier (0–2)
1.0030Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 3 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.9%13.3%45
10–20%16.1%15.4%228
20–30%24.9%27.4%554
30–40%34.4%29.3%225
40–50%44.3%47.7%176
50–60%54.7%46.5%127
60–70%64.1%64.2%81
70–80%74.3%79.5%39
80–90%84.7%71.4%14
90–100%92.8%100.0%2

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (497)

Updated 26 Oct 2026 · 06:31 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published MLS Next Pro · United States
    Austin II The Town
    Home49.63% Draw23.59% Away26.77%
    2–1 Correct pick
  2. Published MLS Next Pro · United States
    Austin II The Town
    Home61.32% Draw21.57% Away17.11%
    2–1 Correct pick
  3. Published MLS Next Pro · United States
    Austin II The Town
    Home61.31% Draw21.58% Away17.11%
    2–1 Correct pick
  4. Published MLS Next Pro · United States
    Austin II The Town
    Home61.48% Draw21.44% Away17.08%
    2–1 Correct pick
  5. Published MLS Next Pro · United States
    Austin II The Town
    Home61.48% Draw21.44% Away17.08%
    2–1 Correct pick
  6. Published MLS Next Pro · United States
    Austin II The Town
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  7. Published MLS Next Pro · United States
    Austin II The Town
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.