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Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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489graded matches
0.5945Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9910Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 11 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.0%3.6%56
10–20%16.3%20.4%201
20–30%24.7%24.9%550
30–40%34.3%32.9%234
40–50%44.7%48.5%171
50–60%54.5%50.0%126
60–70%64.3%59.5%74
70–80%74.6%74.2%31
80–90%84.7%70.6%17
90–100%94.1%100.0%7

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (489)

Updated 31 Oct 2026 · 04:10 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published EFL Trophy · England
    AFC Wimbledon Arsenal U21
    Home60.84% Draw20.11% Away19.05%
    1–2 Missed
  2. Published EFL Trophy · England
    AFC Wimbledon Arsenal U21
    Home57.40% Draw21.02% Away21.58%
    1–2 Missed
  3. Published EFL Trophy · England
    AFC Wimbledon Arsenal U21
    Home69.99% Draw17.50% Away12.51%
    1–2 Missed
  4. Published EFL Trophy · England
    AFC Wimbledon Arsenal U21
    Home66.26% Draw18.93% Away14.81%
    1–2 Missed
  5. Published EFL Trophy · England
    AFC Wimbledon Arsenal U21
    Home66.27% Draw18.93% Away14.80%
    1–2 Missed
  6. Published EFL Trophy · England
    AFC Wimbledon Arsenal U21
    Home66.29% Draw18.92% Away14.78%
    1–2 Missed
  7. Published EFL Trophy · England
    AFC Wimbledon Arsenal U21
    Home66.29% Draw18.92% Away14.78%
    1–2 Missed
  8. Published EFL Trophy · England
    AFC Wimbledon Arsenal U21
    Home72.19% Draw16.96% Away10.85%
    1–2 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.