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Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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496graded matches
0.5672Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9566Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 4 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.0%6.3%32
10–20%16.3%10.4%163
20–30%25.2%24.4%640
30–40%34.7%29.6%226
40–50%44.9%49.2%199
50–60%54.6%62.1%132
60–70%64.4%72.3%65
70–80%75.0%94.1%17
80–90%84.3%80.0%10
90–100%93.0%75.0%4

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (496)

Updated 02 Nov 2026 · 07:40 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published 1. Division · Cyprus
    Nea Salamis Pafos
    Home19.33% Draw23.01% Away57.66%
    0–0 Missed
  2. Published 1. Division · Cyprus
    Nea Salamis Pafos
    Home19.18% Draw22.89% Away57.93%
    0–0 Missed
  3. Published 1. Division · Cyprus
    Nea Salamis Pafos
    Home19.05% Draw22.86% Away58.10%
    0–0 Missed
  4. Published 1. Division · Cyprus
    Nea Salamis Pafos
    Home14.23% Draw20.78% Away65.00%
    0–0 Missed
  5. Published 1. Division · Cyprus
    Nea Salamis Pafos
    Home14.10% Draw20.60% Away65.30%
    0–0 Missed
  6. Published 1. Division · Cyprus
    Nea Salamis Pafos
    Home13.52% Draw19.96% Away66.52%
    0–0 Missed
  7. Published 1. Division · Cyprus
    Nea Salamis Pafos
    Home19.34% Draw23.81% Away56.84%
    0–0 Missed
  8. Published 1. Division · Cyprus
    Nea Salamis Pafos
    Home18.04% Draw23.40% Away58.57%
    0–0 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.