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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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479graded matches
0.5720Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9651Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 21 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.2%10.8%83
10–20%16.0%13.2%204
20–30%24.8%24.8%520
30–40%34.1%33.7%199
40–50%44.7%48.0%175
50–60%54.4%53.7%108
60–70%64.3%63.4%71
70–80%75.1%77.8%45
80–90%83.5%65.0%20
90–100%93.8%100.0%12

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (479)

Updated 23 Oct 2026 · 10:40 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Ligue 1 · France
    Rennes Strasbourg
    Home55.00% Draw21.47% Away23.53%
    Awaiting result
  2. Published Ligue 1 · France
    Rennes Strasbourg
    Home55.02% Draw21.46% Away23.53%
    Awaiting result
  3. Published Ligue 1 · France
    Rennes Strasbourg
    Home54.81% Draw21.51% Away23.68%
    Awaiting result
  4. Published Ligue 1 · France
    Rennes Strasbourg
    Home55.51% Draw21.36% Away23.12%
    Awaiting result
  5. Published Ligue 1 · France
    Rennes Strasbourg
    Home56.76% Draw21.23% Away22.01%
    Awaiting result
  6. Published Ligue 1 · France
    Rennes Strasbourg
    Home42.02% Draw24.43% Away33.55%
    Awaiting result

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.