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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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488graded matches
0.5568Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9434Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 12 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%7.4%8.6%35
10–20%16.4%11.1%199
20–30%25.0%23.0%556
30–40%34.2%34.5%258
40–50%44.5%46.6%178
50–60%54.6%57.7%123
60–70%64.1%74.0%73
70–80%74.7%94.1%34
80–90%86.0%75.0%8
90–100%--0

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (488)

Updated 27 Oct 2026 · 11:40 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Serie D - Girone C · Italy
    Campodarsego Clodiense
    Home37.02% Draw27.68% Away35.30%
    2–2 Missed
  2. Published Serie D - Girone C · Italy
    Campodarsego Clodiense
    Home39.03% Draw27.64% Away33.33%
    2–2 Missed
  3. Published Serie D - Girone C · Italy
    Campodarsego Clodiense
    Home39.03% Draw27.64% Away33.33%
    2–2 Missed
  4. Published Serie D - Girone C · Italy
    Campodarsego Clodiense
    Home34.45% Draw27.02% Away38.53%
    2–2 Missed
  5. Published Serie D - Girone C · Italy
    Campodarsego Clodiense
    Home34.45% Draw27.02% Away38.53%
    2–2 Missed
  6. Published Serie D - Girone C · Italy
    Campodarsego Clodiense
    Home34.45% Draw27.02% Away38.53%
    2–2 Missed
  7. Published Serie D - Girone C · Italy
    Campodarsego Clodiense
    Home34.45% Draw27.02% Away38.53%
    2–2 Missed
  8. Published Serie D - Girone C · Italy
    Campodarsego Clodiense
    Home34.45% Draw27.02% Away38.53%
    2–2 Missed
  9. Published Serie D - Girone C · Italy
    Campodarsego Clodiense
    Home38.62% Draw28.21% Away33.17%
    2–2 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.