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Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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Model
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497graded matches
0.5962Multiclass Brier (0–2)
1.0011Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 3 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.8%13.0%46
10–20%16.0%15.3%229
20–30%24.9%27.2%552
30–40%34.4%30.1%226
40–50%44.4%47.4%175
50–60%54.7%46.8%126
60–70%64.2%63.7%80
70–80%74.3%80.0%40
80–90%85.0%73.3%15
90–100%92.8%100.0%2

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (497)

Updated 26 Oct 2026 · 05:40 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published League Two · China
    Hubei Chufeng Heli Shanghai Second
    Home39.11% Draw28.91% Away31.98%
    1–1 Missed
  2. Published League Two · China
    Hubei Chufeng Heli Shanghai Second
    Home48.18% Draw27.30% Away24.52%
    1–1 Missed
  3. Published League Two · China
    Hubei Chufeng Heli Shanghai Second
    Home47.46% Draw27.46% Away25.08%
    1–1 Missed
  4. Published League Two · China
    Hubei Chufeng Heli Shanghai Second
    Home54.59% Draw25.16% Away20.25%
    1–1 Missed
  5. Published League Two · China
    Hubei Chufeng Heli Shanghai Second
    Home54.59% Draw25.16% Away20.25%
    1–1 Missed
  6. Published League Two · China
    Hubei Chufeng Heli Shanghai Second
    Home54.59% Draw25.16% Away20.25%
    1–1 Missed
  7. Published League Two · China
    Hubei Chufeng Heli Shanghai Second
    Home54.59% Draw25.16% Away20.25%
    1–1 Missed
  8. Published League Two · China
    Hubei Chufeng Heli Shanghai Second
    Home54.58% Draw25.16% Away20.25%
    1–1 Missed
  9. Published League Two · China
    Hubei Chufeng Heli Shanghai Second
    Home53.55% Draw26.46% Away19.99%
    1–1 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.