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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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487graded matches
0.5508Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9334Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 13 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.7%0.0%28
10–20%16.2%10.1%159
20–30%25.0%21.3%606
30–40%34.7%33.2%262
40–50%44.8%54.9%184
50–60%54.4%60.5%124
60–70%64.4%75.4%69
70–80%75.5%95.0%20
80–90%82.6%85.7%7
90–100%95.2%100.0%2

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (487)

Updated 03 Nov 2026 · 07:01 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published 1. Division · Belarus
    Lida Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
    Home47.53% Draw23.17% Away29.29%
    1–0 Correct pick
  2. Published 1. Division · Belarus
    Lida Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
    Home50.50% Draw21.80% Away27.70%
    1–0 Correct pick
  3. Published 1. Division · Belarus
    Lida Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
    Home50.49% Draw21.81% Away27.70%
    1–0 Correct pick
  4. Published 1. Division · Belarus
    Lida Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
    Home50.49% Draw21.81% Away27.70%
    1–0 Correct pick
  5. Published 1. Division · Belarus
    Lida Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  6. Published 1. Division · Belarus
    Lida Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  7. Published 1. Division · Belarus
    Lida Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  8. Published 1. Division · Belarus
    Lida Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.