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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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491graded matches
0.5781Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9703Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 9 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.5%2.0%50
10–20%16.3%15.5%200
20–30%24.9%25.1%553
30–40%34.5%33.1%245
40–50%44.7%46.7%182
50–60%54.7%54.6%130
60–70%64.9%62.7%67
70–80%75.0%83.3%24
80–90%84.3%92.9%14
90–100%95.5%100.0%8

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (491)

Updated 21 Oct 2026 · 00:30 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published FA Trophy · England
    Aveley Carshalton Athletic
    Home44.57% Draw23.60% Away31.83%
    Awaiting result
  2. Published FA Trophy · England
    Aveley Carshalton Athletic
    Home47.44% Draw23.21% Away29.36%
    Awaiting result
  3. Published FA Trophy · England
    Aveley Carshalton Athletic
    Home47.44% Draw23.20% Away29.36%
    Awaiting result
  4. Published FA Trophy · England
    Aveley Carshalton Athletic
    Home45.16% Draw22.76% Away32.08%
    Awaiting result

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.