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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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497graded matches
0.5950Multiclass Brier (0–2)
1.0015Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 3 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.6%15.2%46
10–20%16.0%14.3%224
20–30%24.8%26.8%556
30–40%34.4%30.4%227
40–50%44.3%48.0%175
50–60%54.8%47.7%128
60–70%64.1%64.2%81
70–80%74.3%83.3%36
80–90%85.0%73.3%15
90–100%92.4%66.7%3

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (497)

Updated 26 Oct 2026 · 07:20 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Spain
    Andratx Migjorn
    Home77.41% Draw15.38% Away7.21%
    4–4 Missed
  2. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Spain
    Andratx Migjorn
    Home77.41% Draw15.38% Away7.21%
    4–4 Missed
  3. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Spain
    Andratx Migjorn
    Home77.42% Draw15.37% Away7.21%
    4–4 Missed
  4. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Spain
    Andratx Migjorn
    Home77.38% Draw15.39% Away7.23%
    4–4 Missed
  5. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Spain
    Andratx Migjorn
    Home77.38% Draw15.39% Away7.23%
    4–4 Missed
  6. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Spain
    Andratx Migjorn
    Home77.40% Draw15.37% Away7.23%
    4–4 Missed
  7. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Spain
    Andratx Migjorn
    Home77.68% Draw15.21% Away7.10%
    4–4 Missed
  8. Published Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Spain
    Andratx Migjorn
    Home80.12% Draw13.84% Away6.03%
    4–4 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.