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Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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497graded matches
0.5949Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9992Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 3 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.8%14.0%43
10–20%16.0%13.8%224
20–30%24.9%27.3%557
30–40%34.4%30.4%230
40–50%44.4%46.9%177
50–60%54.7%48.4%126
60–70%64.2%63.7%80
70–80%74.3%82.1%39
80–90%85.2%75.0%12
90–100%92.4%66.7%3

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (497)

Updated 25 Oct 2026 · 23:20 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Czech Liga · Czech Republic
    Slovan Liberec Baník Ostrava
    Home57.84% Draw23.21% Away18.96%
    Awaiting result
  2. Published Czech Liga · Czech Republic
    Slovan Liberec Baník Ostrava
    Home57.03% Draw23.00% Away19.98%
    Awaiting result
  3. Published Czech Liga · Czech Republic
    Slovan Liberec Baník Ostrava
    Home57.03% Draw23.00% Away19.98%
    Awaiting result
  4. Published Czech Liga · Czech Republic
    Slovan Liberec Baník Ostrava
    Home57.03% Draw23.00% Away19.98%
    Awaiting result
  5. Published Czech Liga · Czech Republic
    Slovan Liberec Baník Ostrava
    Home54.26% Draw25.40% Away20.35%
    Awaiting result
  6. Published Czech Liga · Czech Republic
    Slovan Liberec Baník Ostrava
    Home54.35% Draw25.26% Away20.39%
    Awaiting result
  7. Published Czech Liga · Czech Republic
    Slovan Liberec Baník Ostrava
    Home54.15% Draw25.24% Away20.61%
    Awaiting result

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.