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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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490graded matches
0.5650Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9558Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 10 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%7.3%13.3%30
10–20%16.3%10.3%204
20–30%25.0%24.0%563
30–40%34.3%33.2%253
40–50%44.4%48.3%180
50–60%54.7%54.8%126
60–70%64.2%75.0%76
70–80%74.3%90.0%30
80–90%85.3%71.4%7
90–100%91.6%100.0%1

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (490)

Updated 27 Oct 2026 · 02:10 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Meistriliiga · Estonia
    Tammeka Trans Narva
    Home44.85% Draw24.71% Away30.44%
    5–1 Correct pick
  2. Published Meistriliiga · Estonia
    Tammeka Trans Narva
    Home44.93% Draw24.70% Away30.37%
    5–1 Correct pick
  3. Published Meistriliiga · Estonia
    Tammeka Trans Narva
    Home43.48% Draw25.84% Away30.68%
    5–1 Correct pick
  4. Published Meistriliiga · Estonia
    Tammeka Trans Narva
    Home41.58% Draw27.31% Away31.11%
    5–1 Correct pick
  5. Published Meistriliiga · Estonia
    Tammeka Trans Narva
    Home56.71% Draw22.32% Away20.97%
    5–1 Correct pick
  6. Published Meistriliiga · Estonia
    Tammeka Trans Narva
    Home59.14% Draw22.36% Away18.50%
    5–1 Correct pick
  7. Published Meistriliiga · Estonia
    Tammeka Trans Narva
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.