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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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496graded matches
0.5603Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9497Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 4 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.5%7.6%66
10–20%15.9%10.6%226
20–30%24.5%25.8%543
30–40%34.6%33.0%218
40–50%44.7%47.5%158
50–60%54.5%52.0%127
60–70%64.6%72.7%77
70–80%74.9%76.0%50
80–90%84.1%89.5%19
90–100%94.5%75.0%4

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (496)

Updated 24 Oct 2026 · 01:01 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published 1. Division · Denmark
    Hillerød Aalborg
    Home29.73% Draw24.87% Away45.40%
    Awaiting result
  2. Published 1. Division · Denmark
    Hillerød Aalborg
    Home29.73% Draw24.87% Away45.40%
    Awaiting result
  3. Published 1. Division · Denmark
    Hillerød Aalborg
    Home28.02% Draw24.58% Away47.40%
    Awaiting result
  4. Published 1. Division · Denmark
    Hillerød Aalborg
    Home27.92% Draw24.56% Away47.52%
    Awaiting result
  5. Published 1. Division · Denmark
    Hillerød Aalborg
    Home28.45% Draw24.66% Away46.89%
    Awaiting result
  6. Published 1. Division · Denmark
    Hillerød Aalborg
    Home32.11% Draw26.42% Away41.47%
    Awaiting result
  7. Published 1. Division · Denmark
    Hillerød Aalborg
    Home43.35% Draw25.92% Away30.74%
    Awaiting result
  8. Published 1. Division · Denmark
    Hillerød Aalborg
    Home45.36% Draw25.68% Away28.96%
    Awaiting result

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.