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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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Model
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495graded matches
0.5964Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9962Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 5 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.7%4.4%45
10–20%16.3%14.7%170
20–30%25.1%26.4%592
30–40%34.6%34.8%256
40–50%44.6%44.1%204
50–60%54.8%52.7%112
60–70%64.6%63.5%63
70–80%74.8%75.0%28
80–90%83.0%80.0%10
90–100%93.8%100.0%5

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (494) · Earlier models (1)

Updated 24 Oct 2026 · 19:30 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published 1st Division · South Africa
    Orbit College Cape Town City
    Home27.64% Draw29.65% Away42.71%
    1–2 Correct pick
  2. Published 1st Division · South Africa
    Orbit College Cape Town City
    Home27.66% Draw29.63% Away42.71%
    1–2 Correct pick
  3. Published 1st Division · South Africa
    Orbit College Cape Town City
    Home27.60% Draw29.26% Away43.15%
    1–2 Correct pick
  4. Published 1st Division · South Africa
    Orbit College Cape Town City
    Home27.60% Draw29.26% Away43.14%
    1–2 Correct pick
  5. Published 1st Division · South Africa
    Orbit College Cape Town City
    Home27.60% Draw29.26% Away43.14%
    1–2 Correct pick
  6. Published 1st Division · South Africa
    Orbit College Cape Town City
    Home27.59% Draw29.26% Away43.14%
    1–2 Correct pick
  7. Published 1st Division · South Africa
    Orbit College Cape Town City
    Home27.59% Draw29.28% Away43.13%
    1–2 Correct pick
  8. Published 1st Division · South Africa
    Orbit College Cape Town City
    Home29.55% Draw29.43% Away41.02%
    1–2 Correct pick
  9. Published 1st Division · South Africa
    Orbit College Cape Town City
    Home31.11% Draw30.74% Away38.15%
    1–2 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.