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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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489graded matches
0.5653Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9561Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 11 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%7.1%9.7%31
10–20%16.3%12.9%209
20–30%25.1%23.6%555
30–40%34.3%32.4%253
40–50%44.4%49.7%177
50–60%54.7%52.4%124
60–70%64.1%73.1%78
70–80%73.8%93.8%32
80–90%85.3%66.7%6
90–100%92.8%100.0%2

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (489)

Updated 27 Oct 2026 · 03:30 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Liga III - Serie 3 · Romania
    Blejoi Viitorul Corbeanca
    Home61.77% Draw21.81% Away16.43%
    1–0 Correct pick
  2. Published Liga III - Serie 3 · Romania
    Blejoi Viitorul Corbeanca
    Home61.76% Draw21.81% Away16.43%
    1–0 Correct pick
  3. Published Liga III - Serie 3 · Romania
    Blejoi Viitorul Corbeanca
    Home61.76% Draw21.81% Away16.43%
    1–0 Correct pick
  4. Published Liga III - Serie 3 · Romania
    Blejoi Viitorul Corbeanca
    Home61.76% Draw21.81% Away16.43%
    1–0 Correct pick
  5. Published Liga III - Serie 3 · Romania
    Blejoi Viitorul Corbeanca
    Home61.76% Draw21.81% Away16.43%
    1–0 Correct pick
  6. Published Liga III - Serie 3 · Romania
    Blejoi Viitorul Corbeanca
    Home61.78% Draw21.79% Away16.43%
    1–0 Correct pick
  7. Published Liga III - Serie 3 · Romania
    Blejoi Viitorul Corbeanca
    Home65.22% Draw20.75% Away14.03%
    1–0 Correct pick
  8. Published Liga III - Serie 3 · Romania
    Blejoi Viitorul Corbeanca
    Home67.80% Draw19.68% Away12.52%
    1–0 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.