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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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494graded matches
0.6042Multiclass Brier (0–2)
1.0055Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 6 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.3%3.9%51
10–20%16.3%16.7%174
20–30%25.1%27.3%594
30–40%34.5%35.9%237
40–50%44.8%40.0%200
50–60%54.9%51.7%116
60–70%64.5%64.6%65
70–80%75.5%67.9%28
80–90%83.1%80.0%10
90–100%94.2%100.0%7

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (493) · Earlier models (1)

Updated 24 Oct 2026 · 22:41 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Liga 3 · Georgia
    Kolkheti Khobi Guria
    Home8.74% Draw15.05% Away76.21%
    2–2 Missed
  2. Published Liga 3 · Georgia
    Kolkheti Khobi Guria
    Home7.67% Draw13.15% Away79.18%
    2–2 Missed
  3. Published Liga 3 · Georgia
    Kolkheti Khobi Guria
    Home7.67% Draw13.15% Away79.18%
    2–2 Missed
  4. Published Liga 3 · Georgia
    Kolkheti Khobi Guria
    Home7.67% Draw13.15% Away79.18%
    2–2 Missed
  5. Published Liga 3 · Georgia
    Kolkheti Khobi Guria
    Home7.67% Draw13.15% Away79.18%
    2–2 Missed
  6. Published Liga 3 · Georgia
    Kolkheti Khobi Guria
    Home7.19% Draw12.35% Away80.45%
    2–2 Missed
  7. Published Liga 3 · Georgia
    Kolkheti Khobi Guria
    Home7.19% Draw12.36% Away80.45%
    2–2 Missed
  8. Published Liga 3 · Georgia
    Kolkheti Khobi Guria
    Home9.01% Draw15.34% Away75.64%
    2–2 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.