Skip to main content
← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

Competition group
All competitions
Country
All countries
League
All leagues
Model
All models
494graded matches
0.5487Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9330Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 6 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.7%6.4%47
10–20%15.9%12.6%214
20–30%24.9%22.0%554
30–40%34.9%32.6%242
40–50%44.8%51.4%183
50–60%54.6%59.3%108
60–70%64.3%75.0%80
70–80%74.7%83.3%36
80–90%84.2%78.6%14
90–100%95.4%100.0%4

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (494)

Updated 08 Nov 2026 · 02:20 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published UEFA Europa League · World
    OFI Bayer Leverkusen
    Home8.27% Draw13.98% Away77.75%
    0–2 Correct pick
  2. Published UEFA Europa League · World
    OFI Bayer Leverkusen
    Home8.30% Draw14.01% Away77.69%
    0–2 Correct pick
  3. Published UEFA Europa League · World
    OFI Bayer Leverkusen
    Home8.97% Draw14.54% Away76.49%
    0–2 Correct pick
  4. Published UEFA Europa League · World
    OFI Bayer Leverkusen
    Home9.35% Draw14.91% Away75.74%
    0–2 Correct pick
  5. Published UEFA Europa League · World
    OFI Bayer Leverkusen
    Home9.84% Draw15.43% Away74.73%
    0–2 Correct pick
  6. Published UEFA Europa League · World
    OFI Bayer Leverkusen
    Home11.73% Draw17.30% Away70.97%
    0–2 Correct pick
  7. Published UEFA Europa League · World
    OFI Bayer Leverkusen
    Home15.88% Draw22.13% Away61.99%
    0–2 Correct pick
  8. Published UEFA Europa League · World
    OFI Bayer Leverkusen
    Home20.73% Draw24.38% Away54.89%
    0–2 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.