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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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490graded matches
0.5704Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9640Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 10 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%7.4%14.3%28
10–20%16.3%12.0%209
20–30%25.1%23.9%561
30–40%34.2%33.3%252
40–50%44.5%48.0%179
50–60%54.8%53.5%127
60–70%64.3%74.0%77
70–80%74.2%90.0%30
80–90%84.7%66.7%6
90–100%91.6%100.0%1

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (490)

Updated 27 Oct 2026 · 05:20 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Primera División · Uruguay
    Racing Montevideo Wanderers
    Home47.93% Draw27.20% Away24.87%
    3–0 Correct pick
  2. Published Primera División · Uruguay
    Racing Montevideo Wanderers
    Home47.90% Draw27.23% Away24.87%
    3–0 Correct pick
  3. Published Primera División · Uruguay
    Racing Montevideo Wanderers
    Home47.84% Draw27.30% Away24.86%
    3–0 Correct pick
  4. Published Primera División · Uruguay
    Racing Montevideo Wanderers
    Home45.46% Draw26.98% Away27.56%
    3–0 Correct pick
  5. Published Primera División · Uruguay
    Racing Montevideo Wanderers
    Home49.51% Draw25.87% Away24.63%
    3–0 Correct pick
  6. Published Primera División · Uruguay
    Racing Montevideo Wanderers
    Home44.59% Draw27.97% Away27.43%
    3–0 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.