Skip to main content
← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

Competition group
All competitions
Country
All countries
League
All leagues
Model
All models
496graded matches
0.5690Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9636Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 4 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.6%8.1%62
10–20%16.0%10.6%207
20–30%24.7%26.2%553
30–40%34.6%33.3%234
40–50%44.7%43.4%175
50–60%54.5%54.1%122
60–70%64.7%77.6%67
70–80%74.9%71.7%46
80–90%84.1%89.5%19
90–100%95.2%66.7%3

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (496)

Updated 24 Oct 2026 · 06:20 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published FA Cup · England
    Sutton Utd Truro City
    Home47.26% Draw26.24% Away26.49%
    1–0 Correct pick
  2. Published FA Cup · England
    Sutton Utd Truro City
    Home47.26% Draw26.24% Away26.49%
    1–0 Correct pick
  3. Published FA Cup · England
    Sutton Utd Truro City
    Home28.74% Draw25.18% Away46.08%
    1–0 Missed
  4. Published FA Cup · England
    Sutton Utd Truro City
    Home28.74% Draw25.18% Away46.08%
    1–0 Missed
  5. Published FA Cup · England
    Sutton Utd Truro City
    Home28.74% Draw25.20% Away46.06%
    1–0 Missed
  6. Published FA Cup · England
    Sutton Utd Truro City
    Home29.65% Draw25.50% Away44.85%
    1–0 Missed
  7. Published FA Cup · England
    Sutton Utd Truro City
    Home30.45% Draw25.51% Away44.04%
    1–0 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.