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Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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479graded matches
0.5651Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9550Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 21 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.1%9.3%75
10–20%16.2%12.8%196
20–30%24.8%23.7%531
30–40%34.2%34.0%206
40–50%44.7%48.9%180
50–60%54.6%57.1%112
60–70%64.4%63.8%69
70–80%75.3%85.0%40
80–90%83.4%56.3%16
90–100%93.8%100.0%12

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (479)

Updated 23 Oct 2026 · 05:40 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Premier League · Bahrain
    Malkiya Al Riffa
    Home9.97% Draw19.58% Away70.45%
    1–1 Missed
  2. Published Premier League · Bahrain
    Malkiya Al Riffa
    Home10.05% Draw19.67% Away70.28%
    1–1 Missed
  3. Published Premier League · Bahrain
    Malkiya Al Riffa
    Home17.34% Draw25.38% Away57.28%
    1–1 Missed
  4. Published Premier League · Bahrain
    Malkiya Al Riffa
    Home17.34% Draw25.38% Away57.28%
    1–1 Missed
  5. Published Premier League · Bahrain
    Malkiya Al Riffa
    Home17.34% Draw25.38% Away57.28%
    1–1 Missed
  6. Published Premier League · Bahrain
    Malkiya Al Riffa
    Home17.34% Draw25.37% Away57.29%
    1–1 Missed
  7. Published Premier League · Bahrain
    Malkiya Al Riffa
    Home17.34% Draw25.35% Away57.31%
    1–1 Missed
  8. Published Premier League · Bahrain
    Malkiya Al Riffa
    Home18.27% Draw25.84% Away55.89%
    1–1 Missed
  9. Published Premier League · Bahrain
    Malkiya Al Riffa
    Home18.27% Draw25.84% Away55.89%
    1–1 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.