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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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496graded matches
0.5492Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9338Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 4 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.9%11.0%73
10–20%15.8%12.3%228
20–30%24.6%23.5%527
30–40%34.9%33.3%228
40–50%44.6%45.7%162
50–60%54.6%59.3%123
60–70%64.7%71.2%66
70–80%75.5%76.8%56
80–90%85.0%90.9%22
90–100%94.6%100.0%3

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (495) · Earlier models (1)

Updated 24 Oct 2026 · 10:40 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Ligue 1 · Burkina Faso
    Majestic Vitesse
    Home34.95% Draw32.27% Away32.78%
    1–3 Missed
  2. Published Ligue 1 · Burkina Faso
    Majestic Vitesse
    Home35.06% Draw32.29% Away32.65%
    1–3 Missed
  3. Published Ligue 1 · Burkina Faso
    Majestic Vitesse
    Home35.06% Draw32.29% Away32.65%
    1–3 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.