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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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483graded matches
0.5977Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9989Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 17 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.8%2.9%35
10–20%16.2%18.8%144
20–30%25.2%25.2%622
30–40%34.9%32.8%238
40–50%44.7%46.6%204
50–60%54.6%53.0%115
60–70%64.5%63.2%57
70–80%75.0%71.4%21
80–90%83.7%100.0%8
90–100%95.4%100.0%5

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (483)

Updated 25 Oct 2026 · 10:30 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Primera División · Costa Rica
    Sporting San Jose San Carlos
    Home55.84% Draw24.63% Away19.53%
    3–3 Missed
  2. Published Primera División · Costa Rica
    Sporting San Jose San Carlos
    Home56.04% Draw24.57% Away19.38%
    3–3 Missed
  3. Published Primera División · Costa Rica
    Sporting San Jose San Carlos
    Home54.35% Draw25.07% Away20.58%
    3–3 Missed
  4. Published Primera División · Costa Rica
    Sporting San Jose San Carlos
    Home46.76% Draw27.01% Away26.23%
    3–3 Missed
  5. Published Primera División · Costa Rica
    Sporting San Jose San Carlos
    Home51.97% Draw26.39% Away21.64%
    3–3 Missed
  6. Published Primera División · Costa Rica
    Sporting San Jose San Carlos
    Home52.23% Draw26.33% Away21.44%
    3–3 Missed
  7. Published Primera División · Costa Rica
    Sporting San Jose San Carlos
    Home49.57% Draw27.11% Away23.32%
    3–3 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.